For some time now, the web community has been discussing the future of Flash. The discussions really heated up when Apple’s Steve Jobs (R.I.P.) released an official letter in April 2010 in which he revealed his ideas about Flash, and Apple’s strategy regarding the use of this technology in their devices. The opinion of someone like Steve really matters. When writing this article he knew it would have a big impact on his competitors and he kindly gave them some good advice: jump out of the boat before it is too late. And so they did.

The article created a chain reaction that changed many things and introduced new variables into the market. Adobe now faces some challenging times and will have to see where they will focus their efforts in the next years, at least as regards the Flash technology. Of course many people criticized Steve at the time but in the end even Adobe was forced to agree with him. As the buzz grew louder Adobe decided to listen to Apple’s ‘prophet’ and discontinue browser support of the Adobe Flash Player in mobile devices.

Later that year, Adobe also released some financial reports and announced the implementation of a restructuring program. It has taken steps to reduce its headcount by approximately 600 full-time positions globally, adding even more skepticism to an already fragile public opinion regarding the technology’s future.

Flash is definitely here to stay, but demand for its use will decrease on many levels. While it is true that the games market is big and is currently growing, it won’t equal the proportions of the old Flash websites and RIAs. And even very successful Flash apps like Tweetdeck are now moving away from the platform.

So now what? One of the doors that Adobe is clearly trying to open is that of the games market. This doesn’t mean that they were not in the market before. Flash has always been one of the main tools for developing 2D Web Games. But the latest improvements to the Adobe Flash Player are clearly pointing in the direction of games. Huge improvements in performance and rendering of 3D graphics are at the top of the list. The company has also signed a partnership with Epic Games, owners of the famous Unreal Engine.

With this kind of partnership Adobe seems to be charting a new course for the technology in order to keep it alive. They have realized that it is pointless to fight against HTML5 and its brother JavaScript. But there is still the possibility of developing Desktop Applications with Flash using the Adobe AIR technology, and this is another area that Adobe wants to explore going forward.

The games market is pretty interesting but is also high-risk, especially if you are developing complex games. Producing a game involves many people and you need to be very good to be successful. The market is still very exclusive and not all companies are interested in producing games. Some traditional companies still find the idea of using games on the web for commercial purposes very hard to accept. But gaming is no longer a children’s activity. Very serious people play games today. Yes, even the army has their war games for training our children.

As we can see for ourselves today at home, the future generation is game-addicted. People like games because they sometimes imitate reality. In games they can do things that they can’t do in real life. It remains to be seen whether this is good or bad. Some studies show gaming makes people smarter. Look at our children. They have no problem spending hours playing on these things. Games on Facebook, PS3, Xbox, Wii and so on. They are smart. They are connected and informed.

Have you ever listened to a conversation between two seven-year-old boys at one of today’s schools? This is not the same stuff we talked about even just several years ago! Games are very important for team spirit, to bring people together and in an increasingly social web, social games will also grow and flourish.

It seems that gaming has a great future, but the same can’t be said for the technologies used to produce those games. Tools change and improve, but the game theory is still the same. In fact people must be ready to produce anything using any technology. We would be wise to select the best tools for the job. If the tools are not good they will be promptly discarded. The market will always try to provide better tools.

So what about Flash?

We have to keep in mind that technologies come and go and that’s the way the market works. When you are a child you play with toys. When grow up you start to play with other things. Old things are discarded and new ones are born. It is a very old strategy. Nature has been working like this for millions of years. If you can adapt to change, you survive. If not, you die.

Flash has a future, but its future is no longer down the same path as it was before. It has to take a new path if it wants to survive. Perhaps Flash needs to make a double change: change the path it is on, and change itself. Only the name will stay and a lot of memories of the old path. Flash will live again. It will be reborn as a new creature.

The age of the old interactive websites done in Flash is over. This doesn’t mean we will no longer have Flash websites. It means that if we can choose between technologies, the best will be chosen. Clients want websites available on the widest possible range of devices and this can only be achieved by using the latest standards.

HTML and all the JavaScript libraries now on the market can emulate most Flash features. And many such solutions are coming from Adobe itself (‘the expressive web’). This fact alone is a very powerful revelation of their real intentions. Adobe is a company and has to turn a profit. They profit or they die. There is no alternative. If they stop selling Flash licenses they need to start selling something else. And they are already starting with it.

The future of web technologies in general is bright, but no one can say for sure what is coming. One thing we can be sure of is that the future will always be better than the present. Reality always strives for perfection and unification. This is not always true for human beings, but at least technology always improves over time (at least for some).

There is only one way to change the future, and that is to shape it in the present. What kind of web do we want to have? It is up to you do decide. Do you want Flash? Then use it. Don’t want it? Don’t use it. Be free and create the Web you wish to see in the future.

Time alone will tell.